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Macroeconomic and Energy Power Development Prospects (II)

Forecast of energy development in 2022

In 2022, global energy supply and demand will remain tight. With the gradual recovery of global economic activities, global energy demand will recover rapidly in 2021, with energy and power shortages in many countries and regions, and prices of coal, oil, gas and electricity rising sharply. Looking ahead to 2022, energy consumption growth is expected to moderate. Under existing production increases by OPEC and non-OPEC partners (400,000 b/d per month), supply is expected to increase in 2022 from 2021; LNG investment remains strong, spurred by high gas and oil prices, and global gas production is expected to increase from 2021. However, given the market reaction to the recent announcement of the release of strategic petroleum reserves in the United States, and uncertainties such as the undetermined timing of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline, the release of supply in 2022 is still relatively limited, and the relationship between energy supply and demand remains tight.

In 2022, it is expected that the overall supply and demand of coal will maintain a tight balance, and the relationship between supply and demand will continue to improve. The tension between oil and gas supply and demand has eased. In 2021, China's energy consumption growth will show a trend of "high before low", with the growth rate falling quarter by quarter. After August, due to the influence of water supply in southern China and high coal prices, energy and power supply in some regions was tight. In 2022, China's economic base will be less reliant on coal demand. The policy of ensuring coal production increase and supply will continue to take effect, and the coal mines that have been included in the fast track of production capacity verification and increase will increase production capacity by 220 million tons per year. The Work Plan for the Signing and Implementation of Medium and Long-term Coal Contracts in 2022 (Draft for Comments) clearly requires power generation and heating enterprises to sign long term coal contracts with the exception of imported coal. It is expected that the supply capacity of thermal coal in 2022 will basically meet the demand for power generation coal. In 2022, oil demand is basically stable, crude oil production continues to recover, and crude oil dependence on foreign countries increases. Refined oil demand will still increase slightly, and the fundamentals of supply and demand will return to excess. The growth rate of natural gas demand slows down and domestic natural gas production increases rapidly, which will ease the tension between supply and demand.

Keywords: Jiuhuayang Mechanical Equipment


The operation of the steel industry

Steel output maintained growth. In October, the output of pig iron, crude steel and steel was 76.17 million tons, 92.2 million tons and 11.48 million tons, respectively, up 9.4 percent, 12.7 percent and 14.2 percent year-on-year. From January to October, the output of pig iron, crude steel and steel stood at 740 million tons, 870 million tons and 1.08 million tons, respectively, up 4.3 percent, 5.5 percent and 6.5 percent year-on-year.

What are the classifications of the steel industry

The main raw materials of iron and steel production include iron ore, manganese ore, chromium ore, limestone, refractory clay, dolomite, siderite and other minerals of raw ore and finished ore, artificial block ore, iron alloy, coal washing, coke, gas and coal chemical products, refractory products, carbon products, etc.

Trends in the steel industry

Output reached a record high level. From January to June 2013, China produced 390 million tons of crude steel, up 7.4% year on year and 5.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In the first six months, the average daily crude steel output was 2.154 million tons, equivalent to the annual crude steel output of 786 million tons. Among them, February reached a record high of 2.208 million tons, March to June although there was a decline, but still maintained at a high level of more than 2.1 million tons. From January to June, the crude steel output of Hebei and Jiangsu increased by 6.8% and 13.2% year on year, respectively. The new output of the two provinces accounted for 42.4% of the total increase of 26.94 million tons in China, and Shanxi, Liaoning, Henan and Yunnan provinces also increased by more than 1 million tons. From January to June, crude steel output of large and medium-sized steel enterprises increased by 5.5% year on year, 2 percentage points lower than the national average, but still accounted for 60% of the increase.

Steel industry development analysis

From January to September 2013, large and medium-sized steel enterprises achieved cumulative sales revenue decreased by 6.49% compared with the same period last year, according to a steel industry operation report released by the China Iron and Steel Association on Wednesday. The loss of loss-making enterprises reached 26.726 billion yuan, an increase of 41.5 times year-on-year, or 45%. Losses in the steel industry continue to intensify.

Status quo of iron and steel industry

The iron and steel industry is an industrial industry mainly engaged in ferrous mineral mining, ferrous metal smelting and processing and other industrial production activities, including the mineral mining industry of ferrous iron, chromium, manganese, iron, steel, steel processing industry, iron alloy smelting, steel wire and products industry and other subdivisions, is one of the important raw material industries of the country. In addition, since steel production also involves non-metallic mineral extraction and products and other industrial categories, such as coking, refractories, carbon products, etc., these industrial categories are usually included in the steel industry.