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Macroeconomic and Energy Power Development Prospects (I)
Release time:
2023-03-03 15:54
Source:
Zheng Haifeng, director of Economics and Energy Supply and Demand Research Institute of State Grid Energy Research Institute
Under the influence of global macroeconomic development, energy development and China's economic development, electricity consumption in 2022 is expected to maintain a relatively fast growth, but the growth rate will be significantly lower than that in 2021. The newly installed capacity of new energy will hit a record high.
Analysis of macroeconomic development situation in 2022
In 2021, the global economic recovery continued, but the mutated virus slowed the recovery process. As vaccine research and development and vaccination continue to advance, major economies in Europe and the United States are likely to relax epidemic prevention and control and adjust ultra-loose policies, global production and logistics chains are expected to continue to repair, and inflation has been contained to some extent, but there is still a possibility that the virus mutation will disrupt global economic recovery. Economic recovery in advanced economies is expected to pick up speed, boosted by tightening liquidity to ease inflationary pressure and renewed demand for stable fiscal support. In developing economies, however, the process of economic recovery is relatively slow due to capital outflow, debt risk pressure and limited policy space. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) report in October 2021, the economic growth rate of the world, developed economies and developing economies in 2022 is expected to be 4.9%, 4.5% and 5.1%, respectively, up 3.6%, 4.3% and 3% from the two-year average growth rate from 2020 to 2021. They are up 2.1%, 2.8% and 1.4% over 2019, respectively. Developed economies are recovering faster than developing ones.
In 2022, China's economic work will remain stable and seek progress while maintaining stability. In 2021, China's GDP will grow by 8.1%, with an average growth of 5.1% over the two years. The economy has achieved a relatively fast recovery, but the recovery is still uneven. The two-year average growth rate of the secondary and tertiary industries was 5.3% and 5.0%, respectively, and the industrial recovery was faster than that of the service industry. Investment, consumption and export grew at an average rate of 3.9%, 3.9% and 10.1%, respectively. External demand was significantly stronger than domestic demand. The Central Economic Work Conference has pointed out that all sectors should actively introduce policies conducive to economic stability in 2022 in order to prepare for the victory of the 20th CPC National Congress.
In 2022, domestic demand will become the main driver of economic growth, consumption and investment will play a significantly stronger role in driving the economy, export growth will weaken, and GDP growth will return to its potential level. In terms of investment, there will be no relaxation of regulation on hidden local debt and limited recovery of traditional infrastructure investment. Support for new infrastructure investment increased, and overall growth in infrastructure investment picked up. Financial support policies were further eased, and real estate investment grew steadily. Technology and financial policies continued to be tilted, and investment in manufacturing, especially high-tech manufacturing, became more supportive. On consumption, we will make solid efforts to promote common prosperity, give greater priority to employment, and make greater efforts to adjust income distribution. We will implement new policies to cut taxes and fees and increase fiscal, tax and financial support for small and micro businesses, which will increase disposable incomes on a larger scale. The impact of the epidemic has diminished, and the propensity to consume has rebounded. On the export side, export strength eased as overseas supply chains were repaired; As the impact of the epidemic wanes, the global economy continues to recover, the entry into force of the Regional Economic Partnership (RCEP) has accelerated trade growth in the ASEAN region, and China has taken various measures to stabilize foreign trade. China still faces a sound foreign trade situation. It is estimated that China's economic growth will return to its potential level in 2022, with GDP growth of around 5.5%.
Keywords: Jiuhuayang Mechanical Equipment
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The operation of the steel industry
Steel output maintained growth. In October, the output of pig iron, crude steel and steel was 76.17 million tons, 92.2 million tons and 11.48 million tons, respectively, up 9.4 percent, 12.7 percent and 14.2 percent year-on-year. From January to October, the output of pig iron, crude steel and steel stood at 740 million tons, 870 million tons and 1.08 million tons, respectively, up 4.3 percent, 5.5 percent and 6.5 percent year-on-year.
What are the classifications of the steel industry
The main raw materials of iron and steel production include iron ore, manganese ore, chromium ore, limestone, refractory clay, dolomite, siderite and other minerals of raw ore and finished ore, artificial block ore, iron alloy, coal washing, coke, gas and coal chemical products, refractory products, carbon products, etc.
Output reached a record high level. From January to June 2013, China produced 390 million tons of crude steel, up 7.4% year on year and 5.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In the first six months, the average daily crude steel output was 2.154 million tons, equivalent to the annual crude steel output of 786 million tons. Among them, February reached a record high of 2.208 million tons, March to June although there was a decline, but still maintained at a high level of more than 2.1 million tons. From January to June, the crude steel output of Hebei and Jiangsu increased by 6.8% and 13.2% year on year, respectively. The new output of the two provinces accounted for 42.4% of the total increase of 26.94 million tons in China, and Shanxi, Liaoning, Henan and Yunnan provinces also increased by more than 1 million tons. From January to June, crude steel output of large and medium-sized steel enterprises increased by 5.5% year on year, 2 percentage points lower than the national average, but still accounted for 60% of the increase.
Steel industry development analysis
From January to September 2013, large and medium-sized steel enterprises achieved cumulative sales revenue decreased by 6.49% compared with the same period last year, according to a steel industry operation report released by the China Iron and Steel Association on Wednesday. The loss of loss-making enterprises reached 26.726 billion yuan, an increase of 41.5 times year-on-year, or 45%. Losses in the steel industry continue to intensify.
Status quo of iron and steel industry
The iron and steel industry is an industrial industry mainly engaged in ferrous mineral mining, ferrous metal smelting and processing and other industrial production activities, including the mineral mining industry of ferrous iron, chromium, manganese, iron, steel, steel processing industry, iron alloy smelting, steel wire and products industry and other subdivisions, is one of the important raw material industries of the country. In addition, since steel production also involves non-metallic mineral extraction and products and other industrial categories, such as coking, refractories, carbon products, etc., these industrial categories are usually included in the steel industry.
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